A long weekend of Racing

This long weekend many New Zealand eyes will be focused on the Rugby World Cup final. The French may not be able to pull off a Rugby World Cup win on the weekend but they are starting to look even more likely to take home a second consecutive Melbourne Cup after Dunaden's impressive run in the Geelong Cup, we will get a better idea of Americian's form on Cox Plate day. Many of New Zealand's horse racing fan's eyes will be focused on Melbourne as several Kiwi horses take on the big races from Moonee Valley, however there is great racing action happening at home, here are some things to look out for over this long weekend.

Saturday
Auckland 

The ARC will shout everyone on course a drink if Jimmy Choux wins the Cox Plate. If that is not incentive enough the whether is looking fine and the racing damn fine starting with an interesting race for the 3YO's and an early season look at some 2YO's.

Race 3 is definitely an interesting one, it is a Rating 70 race over 2400m, but it features horses who may be better than that, Maythehorsebemagic used to carrying a lot of weight over the jumps and searching for its first win in 12 starts at Ellerslie, super consistent Zardetto will have the services of Opie Bosson who won last time he rode him, underrated Toby Cee probably needs this extra distance, but the one which stands out is D'Nood Lady who ran a good 4th in a tougher Rating 80 race in Auckland over this distance two starts back, has been consistent recently and the horse who won that race at Ellerslie went on to win a Listed level race its next start.

Race 4 is a 2400m Rating 80 race, but features many who have been racing in higher grades in consistent form and also features Black Fox having start number 120 and number 52 at Ellerslie. There is a lot of up and coming rating 80 talent on show in race six, definitely a few to keep an eye on as they raise through the grades. Race 7 features a lot of top talent with several runners displaying form on the course.

Wellington

Wellington offers excellent feature racing including the Wellington Guineas. The first race may feature the talented Planet Rock, but I suspect she is more likely to be spotted in the Guineas later that day, but it is an interesting field of the next level of 3YO's to open up the program.

Race 3 the Wellesley Boutique Hotel Stakes should be interesting, it is a Listed 2YO race which features several 2YO's who have already broken the maiden ranks. Still hard to know exactly what to expect, it looks like several of runners in this race to notch up a victory would be suited to slightly more distance. Killa Question is the sole runner with Heavy track form, although several others have form on Slow tracks. Will be a good early look at 2YO's likely to feature in a lot of the Group and Listed races for 2YO's as the summer progresses.

I am very interested to see if Baby Guinness can win its third in a row. It is a horse I like a lot, and a tasty shot (not the kind of horse related shot you might find at a wild foods festival). Another good win here and we could see her start to take on races like the Rich Hill Stud Thompson Handicap, which is the first feature race of the day. A great field, with a handful backing up from the either the Matamata Cup or other similar strong Taranaki, Hawkes Bay or Rotorua races. It is a strong betting race as punters have had a good chance to have a look at a lot of these runners in recent weeks. Here is how I see a few of the contenders.

My First Four 
(2) Justanexcuse - Came home very well when second in a strong Matamata Cup field, only penalised a half kilo for this start. He had another strong third in a tough race in the Hawkes Bay prior to that where Twlight Savings was dominant. Has been very consistent recently and tends to get better with more racing, winning five out of seven victories from "8th up" onwards.He brings a great on course record and was a winner here in January. If the track remains heavy it will not worry Justanexcuse with three wins and four placings under those conditions.

(9) Guessing - Has almost not won for over a year. Mixed her form a bit recently, but the Taranaki Breeders Stakes run was very strong, and on the strength of that performance she must be included. She has a better draw today than her last four double digit draws. She drops in weight from her last three outings. This is a horse who won five in a row last year and has won forth up in the past.

(8) No Excuse Maggie - Will carry an extra 1.5kgs this week. John Bary cant do much wrong at the moment, this might be the start of a very big day for his stable. No Excuse Maggie is a very consistent miler who looked very good last start. She wont mind it wet under foot. She has been very consistent recently and looked very strong with her last start win.


(11) Lady Kipling -Group 1 Placed as a 3YO this mare has run in top company throughout her career with good success but without notching up a black type victory, today could be her day. She is in very good form, her last two victories have been convincing at lower grades. She typically has performed best early in her campaigns so 3rd up should suit her well. She will also only carry 53kg's and retain the services of top Jockey Lisa Allpress. Barrier draw might concern, but she typically runs slightly off the pace anyway so potentially she will find a nice place to sit.

Some others to look at

(4) Kaap Kruis - Probably ready for the mile at the moment. The worry is the extra 1.5kg's from the 5th to Twlight savings two starts back in Hastings. Another with very strong wet track form and success on the track. His best racing may have passed him by this prep, but an interesting runner who could grab a place.

(6) Ourforeignminister - Won or placed in his last four, including a win in a similar field last start.Has had over a month off and typically doesn't go that well in that state. Will also carry an extra 2.5kg's here, but he has won carrying around this weight in the past.

(7) Intransigent - A horse I have looked a lot in recent weeks. Had a good win last week at long odds.Dropping back to 1600m is a bit of a concern. He will carry an extra 1.5kgs, but he should get a good trip from barrier two. There is a lot to scare you away from him this week.


The other Wellington feature is the Guineas, it will be a good look at some of the contenders ahead of the Canterbury Group 1's next month. There are three races for 3YO's on this week which thins out some of the potential fields particularly if you look at the murders row assembled in Hamilton for Monday. A lot of interest will be focused on Burgundy on Sunday. This is a strong field but I see Planet Rock is nominated for both this and the race on Sunday in Christchurch, so I can only assume he will race in this.

The chances
(10) Planet Rock - Simply looks the one to beat here. Her narrow victory last start was over the impressive and highly rated Rock and Pop. She ran a good third in the Karaka Million last year, and has always been consistent throughout her short career. Not sure if she will start this or the Sunday race, but I like her chances here more.

(1) Distil - Didn't fire first up as a 3YO, but ran a 3rd and a 4th in Group 1's as a 2YO. He did run home in a race which was dominated by top 3YO Antonio Lombardo, 1500m should be suitable. Not enough known to know if he can get back to his best, I am looking towards those big race performances as a guide to his ability.

(9) Whoshe - I have gone off this filly since the run in Auckland for Third, she was maybe exposed that day as not quite as classy as she appeared up until that point, the forth at Hastings was in a similar race to this, particularly after you remove Antonio Lombardo from the equation.She is worth another look. 


(2) Duckworth Lewis - In my first draft of this I had a typo and typed the name of this horse as Suckworth Lewis. That is generally how I feel about him up until this point in his career. However his last start run was better than I remembered after taking another look at it, he battled on well on the inside. Hayden Tinsley has a the ability to win this type of race on this type of horse. He might be an interesting place bet today.

(4) Jetset Man - Really don't know enough to make an informed comment. Could definitely see him sneaking into the mix here. Admittedly Distil and Duckworth Lewis are long shots, but they just look like they could be chances in this race.


Melbourne
This post was supposed to focus on New Zealand, but Saturday in Melbourne is just too excellent to pass up. I have written about my Cox Plate thoughts, and really not much has changed. Descarado is out, my pick Kings Rose has shortened to $12, Rekindled Interest has been the big market mover crunching into $6.50 based on a track gallop with Jimmy Choux, but John Bary isn't concerned. I still think the big worry is Glass Harmonium, mainly because I don't like the record of mares in this race. Efficient still appeals as an outsider at $18.

Other things to look forward to on the day include Black Caviar, this mare is outstanding and has reduced the number of runners in this race to five because of how unbeatable she is. At this stage Sepoy appears the most likely to challenge in the Patinack Farm Classic during Melbourne cup week. It is also interesting that on Cox Plate day they seem to be promoting Black Caviar as the main draw card, that is how amazing this horse is.



Manawanui gets another Derby tune up in a small field. He is at short odds and given his impressive Guineas run it is not surprising. I still like the match up with Sangster in the Derby, it is unfortunate for James McDonald that he will not get a chance to ride him in the Derby, it looked like he went a bit early with his run last start, but given his position on the track I think he had to go for it, he had got to the lead and it certainly looked like he had a lot to offer when he shot clear. He will probably be fitter for the run and nicely placed on Derby Saturday.

The Drake International Cup is looking interesting, there is a couple of Kiwis (Harris Tweed, and Booming), taking on Melbourne Cup contenders in Linton, Tullamore, Illo, Anudjawon, and defending champion Americain. Should be a good build up less than ten days out from the Melbourne Cup.

I wouldn't say He's Remarkable looked remarkable last start, but he was pretty impressive. 1600m is clearly ideal and 52.5kgs feels like a gift, but this is a big step up. He didn't really fire in the autumn in Sydney, so will this trip to Aussie be more suitable? certainly he is in the form of his short career to date. Ginga Dude actually looks well placed in this, course and distance winner in a lower grade two starts back, he drops to 1600m which is a distance where he has had a lot of success. Outside of the Kiwi's Luen Yat Forever was strongly backed last time and finished third behind two very good horses in the Toorak, I liked the look of Triple Elegance before the Epsom, he has to be considered if you are happy to throw out that race. Testa My Patience has an outstanding overall record, will be taking a step up, but again the 53.5kg has to appeal. Dao Dao was another who looked like good value on the back of a pretty good Toorak run, his overall 1600m record is appealing.

Sunday
Canterbury
Looks to be good racing all day, the interesting one is clearly the 3YO feature with Burgundy and possibly Planet Rock. It is hard not to have Burgundy on top, if he is the Guineas favourite surely he is good enough to account for this field.

(3) Burgundy - Matthew Cameron must be looking forward to this ride after missing the last start of Burgundy. He might be the best person to ask about the Guineas favouritism on Monday after he rides Anabandana the next day. This is the biggest test for this horse to date, but based on everything we know so far it is hard to go against him.

(1) Shuka - Could stir things up in the race for second if Planet Rock is in this, he beat a handy field last start including the likes of Kasumi and Rock and Pop.

(10) Planet Rock - I actually rate his chances in Wellington more. The draw and Burgundy work against her here. However she has proved consistent and should at least figure.

(2) Dollario - Only winner of $43k from his 12 starts, he has been consistent racking up three wins, but has come 3rd five times. That $43k could have been higher with some luck. It looks pretty wet in Christchurch at the moment this could work in the favour of Dollario.

So many of these horses are still unknown, or were beaten last time by Shuka, so it is hard to see them beating the known quality this race had to offer. 

Monday
Waikato

What better way to work off the post All Black victory hangover and enjoy your Labour day.  Te Rapa offers the best line up for 3YO's this weekend. We all know the quality of Anabandana and Antonio Lombardo, so this should be an excellent battle. Artistic put herself in Thousand Guineas contention with her convincing win against the Colts at Ellerslie and Holy Moly won well the day day. It is hard not to pick these in the order of their ratings.

Anabandana - The track is currently Slow, she is yet to see a track worse than Good other than in a couple of trials. She will also not have Opie Bosson's services unless he is granted a concession to ride at slightly above the listed weight.

Antonio Lombardo - He looks to have improved from last season, the Hawkes Bay Guineas win was superb and easy. I think he has closed the gap on Anabandana from the Manawatu Sires Produce run, and the gap was not that big to begin with.

Artistic - I am still a little sure what to make of that run given the pre-start delays, which I asked a few questions about, but it was very eye catching. Will have to watch this one closely, she might get found out.

Holy Moly - Impressive win last start, a chance to prove that she is improving.

Is there anything else in this race who can compete with this top four? To me it looks like Chicharita and Full of Spirit might be the most likely, but it is hard to see them doing any better than third.