As much as the spectacle of the Melbourne Cup is exciting and amazing to see, Derby Day is the day of the Melbourne Cup carnival I tend to look forward to the most. Big races all day with quality fields, and this year there is a huge quaddie on offer. I believe because of the co-mingling of the pools this is also on offer to punters in New Zealand, but to be honest I have no idea how that works. As big as the pool for the quaddie this week it is also a very difficult one to select, so today I am hoping break down some of the chances in each race. I will then briefly look at some of the other big races on a great day of racing.
Quaddie Preview
Leg One - AAMI Victoria Derby
Hard to leave out
Manawanui - Can he stay? well I think he proved that with his performance in the AAMI Vase last weekend, it is hard to tell if he even got to top gear. He might be the closest thing to a Anchor we have, but with so many horses running anything can happen. Often at this stage in the career of a three year old it may not be the best stayer who wins this race but the best athlete, Manawanui certainly appears to have the talent.
Stangster - I watched his last start again to see what happened. He really had to make a move early, he had to travel three wide and at times he seemed wider around the bend, he got in the clear and unleashed his run. His run was early and he ran out of steam, but he still really had most of them beat. I am confident he will get the 2500m. His draw is comfortable and he should find himself somewhere in the middle of the pack. He is hard to leave out.
Induna - One of the few who has started at greater than 2000m more than once, he also has a start at 1900m, you have to believe the prep for this race has been good. The Geelong Classic run was impressive, he definitely looks up to this level.
Potential Quaddie Buster - for this purpose I will pick one who might be under the radar who could potentially spoil the quaddie (will only select horses paying over $20).
Cornell ($51) - Hard to see where he is going to make up the three plus lengths to Induna from the last time they met, however of the $20+ crowd he looks the most likely.
Value Bet
Sarbage ($15) - pretty good value on a runner who flew past Sangster last start.
Worth Considering
Collar
Perfect Punch
Niagara
Mr Chez
Leg Two - Myer Classic
Hard to leave out
More Joyous - If Manawanui wins the first leg and More Joyous the second there will be a lot of live units remaining. She had some sort of saddle problem prior to her last start, her price pushed out as people doubted this great mare, she became great value for a horse we know to be of top quality. During the running she was back and at times uncovered but once she hit top gear she really zoomed home, and while she didn't win by a lot she still crossed the finish line first. She has three wins from four over the mile so this distance will suit. Again, with a lot of chances in this race it is hard to recommend her as an anchor but depending on your Manawanui feelings she might be the next closest thing.
Lady Lynette - Has limited success on the track, but last two runs have been good. She goes well over the distance. I would have thought she was a better chance in this before disappointing two starts back. Before her win here she was fourth to Pinker Pinker and then third to Kings Rose and Pinker Pinker. Seems a bit over the odds at $21.
Mosheen - Form and at 49kgs there is a lot of get excited about. She is consistent and 1600m record has been proven. Looks like a great chance to upset the favourite.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Other than Lady Lynette.
Skyerush ($26)- Simply based on consistency it is hard not to consider her. She has proven herself over 1600m and it seems about right at this point in her prep.
Value Bet
Other than the two mentioned above there is good value around Guisepinna ($21) if she makes the field. Banchee for a place. Goon Serpent ($21) might be good value, but there is plenty of value in this race.
Worth Considering
It is possible to make a case for about three quarters of the field.
Leg Three - Salinger Stakes
This is where punters will have to go wide to take in a lot of runners.
Hard to leave out
Temple of Boom - Great record course and distance. Was very good last time. Only concern is the quality of the other runners and the draw.
Sister Madly - 1200m just suits this mare. Very good form at present, only losing to Sepoy and More Joyous in recent starts.
Curtana - Kept close enough to Sepoy last start to justify inclusion.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Only three paying greater than $20 in this close betting race. Hard to see any of them busting your quaddie here as there are eight runners paying between $4.50 and $13. However Black Piranah at $51 looks the best of the over $20 bunch, he has the class but maybe not quite the form over 1200m in recent times.
Value Bet
Temple of Boom is pretty good value, the market here looks pretty even maybe Curtana and Catapulted are slightly over too.
Worth Considering
Any of the mentioned runners in that group of Eight.
Neeson, Stirling Grove, and Catapulted look most likely to figure.
Leg Four - TAB.COM.AU Stakes
You will be doing very well if you are still alive for this one, but it is not any easier.
Hard to leave out
Doubtful Jack - Has first hand experience what it is like to see the rump of Black Caviar, but so does every other horse she has ever faced on a racetrack. Pretty good tune up run in a small field, consistent of late and loves Flemington.
Lunary - It is all falling into place to make it four from four at Flemington, loves 1400m and is brilliant second up. Barrier eight and 54kgs make this look like an outstanding chance.
Niblick - Another with strong C'n'D form. Also been good on the track recently, can do 53.5kg with ease, another to must include.
Potential Quaddie Buster
Largo Lad - Is another with form on the course and over the distance. He looks primed to put in a good show here, and $26 offers good value.
Value Bet
Toorak Toff ($15)- Was in good form before the run to nowhere in the Toorak. 1400m is better but will have to contend with barrier fifteen and 59kgs.
Worth Considering
Thankgodyou'rehere (draw concerns)
Amaethon
Happy Zero (Value)
Other Races to Enjoy
All of them of course. Dowager Queen looking for an Aussie victory in race three has a good chance to upset the favourite. Sepoy will put on a show in the forth.
Race two is the Lexus stakes. Always a good chance to get into the cup, and the winner here is worth considering, Shocking won the Cup after winning this a couple of years back.
- Tullamore and Green Moon are genuine Melbourne Cup contenders. Tullamore should be in the 24, Green Moon is at 32nd on the order of entry, he really needs this.
- Showcause had a good performance in the Geelong Cup, he is not as out of this as $15 suggests, he probably needs to win as he is currently at 37th in line for the Cup.
- Niwot is short with the bookmakers and performed well course and distance in the Bart Cummings, a winner recently at Flemington over 3200m is 34th in the order and likely needs a win here to get a Cup shot.
- I thought Aundjawun looked pretty good at Moonee Valley last start, at 40th for the cup he will need this win, $15 odds looks about right and possibly good value.
- Older Than Time is in the Cup if they want it, seems to be improving and another one who could go well here.
- Booming can start the Cup if he wants it, sounds like he will need to have a good showing here to be given the start on Tuesday, still looks like an outside winning chance
The Mackinnon Stakes is looking like the race of the day. Will be interesting to see how Cox Plate runners rebound from last week and how horses like the Metrop winner The Verminator, Caulfield Cup winner Southern Speed will go here. I have more things to consider.
- I picked Glass Harmonium to win the Cox Plate. He lost that race in the first five meters of the 2040m trip. Do you give him another chance? I tend to agree with Mike Moroney, I think it will be unlikely that there will be so much disruption before this race and that he (the horse) is worth another shot.
- Wall Street has been kept a lot safer this week after a flying fourth in the Cox Plate. Will likely jump better this week and be in a better position to make a run at them.
- Efficient, looked great last week, he got squeezed out when making a run at the end and still came 6th.
- It feels like a good opportunity for Ginga Dude, $31 is pretty good value. Won on the course and distance about a year ago, will probably challenge Glass Harmonium for the lead.
- Despite the Verminator's good form and love of 2000m, hard to see the 59kgs suit. One can assume he will start on Tuesday in the Cup, so if you want a run on Saturday why not hit the Lexus?
- Rekindled interest was excellent last week. Should get a great trip from barrier five with Ginga Dude moving forward. Unlucky at the finish last week and still charged home for third.
- Southern Speed, unfortunately I think the weight will be a bit too much. However she has been excellent all spring and is never too far away.
- Lights of Heaven, has to be considered after her last start effort in strong field.
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