This Saturday four New Zealand trained runners will take their place in the Rosehill Guineas over 2000m in Sydney. Three of them are rated (by New Zealand bookies) in the top 5 chances (in terms of odds), the other is already a Group 1 winner in Australia. The trip to Australia is always a big challenge for Kiwi horses, there has been a lot of successes over the past couple of years with Wall Street, Jimmy Choux, Mufhasa, Sangster, Lion Tamer, Kings Rose (Can I still claim that?) and Scarlett Lady amongst some of the more successful. This Saturday there is a chance another name will be added to this list. I have watched these New Zealand 3YO's pretty closely and this is how I think they will go this weekend.
Sangster won the Victorian Derby in November. This prep he was never going to be a chance in the Waikato Draft Sprint, he was most likely not going to factor in the Australian Guineas, but last start at Moonee Valley over 2040m he showed similar progress to his build up to the Victorian Derby putting in a better performance. 2000m will suit, but this may still be a bit of a Derby build up. He is certainly a place chance, $21 is pretty good value for a win, but the AJC Derby in two weeks is a race he could really be a big part of.
Rock'n'Pop is a bigger chance than the $10 odds on offer at present. Even just looking at how he compares to Ocean Park and Silent Achiever, he was well beaten into second by Silent Achiever on ground which was probably not ideal for either runner, but why is Ocean Park rated a so much better chance than him. Rock'n'Pop won the Guineas, was third at Group 1 level behind Shez Sinsational over this distance, and then was a good second in the Derby (when distance was a question mark). Ocean Park's best two results were dominating the Group 3 Wellington Stakes, a close up 8th two weeks ago at Randwick, and having Silent Achiever weave through the field and beat him in Hamilton. Personally I still prefer Rcok'n'Pop, I think this distance will suit, he will be happy at barrier 10 and you would imagine he will be in the first half of the pack two wide.
Ocean Park is a good chance, despite been caught late over 2000m at Hamilton he will be fitter for that experience over 2000m. He was only two-ish lengths behind Mosheen last start (she would be favoured here I expect) and finished comparably to Manawanui. I know Ocean Park is good, it is just very hard to compare him to any of the other Kiwi horses, I know Silent Achiever was better than him, is suspect Rock'n'Pop is better, but because he missed the derby there are a lot of unknowns. It appears he might have improved from his last New Zealand Race, and strong form in Australia is important, but he did finish behind Seven other horses in the Randwick Guineas, five of which he will face on Saturday. Luck was certainly a factor in the Randwick Guineas, but to bet on Ocean Park to win this weekend you need to make the following assumptions; he wont have bad luck (you have to assume that for whoever you bet on); he would have beaten the other five Australian runners without bad luck (doubtful); he would have beaten them if the race was extended 400m (possible); he has improved to the point he is better than Silent Achiever (unlikely); Silent Achiever will beat every other runner over 2000m (a strong chance); he is stronger and 2000m now suits (I am still not completely sure, but will give him benefit of the doubt). That is not enough in my opinion to have him beating Silent Achiever, Laser Hawk or all of other other four who beat him last time.
Silent Achiever is great, the draw should not concern, she will go back, if she has cover she should be able to get a run. She is the best hope of the Kiwi's, in a four horse race over this distance she beats them all with comfort. Is she good enough to beat the Aussie horses? that is the big question.
Of course this is not just a four horse race, there will probably be 18 starters. Laser Hawk ran a narrow third to Mosheen last start and has to be considered. If you like Ocean Park you have to like the look of Galah. Strike the Stars is a chance based on his last two races. Induna and Sabrage will be getting better with distance, but probably wont figure. Highly Recommended looks more threatening over 2000m. Said Com is consistent but ran out of steam and now has 400m more to deal with. Proliferate is stepping up, but the distance with better footing may help.
There are chances across the board and the Kiwi runners are a good hope, certainly we should see one or two in the money, but can they claim the big prize, Silent Achiever looks the best pick.
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