This is now a story. There was always a possibility it would become one and in some ways the two Group 1's McDonald has won were the easier of the two he will face this week. They were the ones he was probably expected to win. In other ways they were harder, there was enough that went wrong before and during those races that the victories were remarkable. He will ride Scarlett Lady and Rollout the Carpet on Saturday in his quest to sweep the Auckland Cup week Group 1's.
James McDonald calls Ellerslie his favourite track. I don't think anyone would disagree with him. Durham Town, Silent Achiever, Fix, Peridot, Between the Beats, and Shez Sensational have won this Auckland Cup week with him on board. Fix was another in a long line of wins in the first race of the day at Ellerslie yesterday. His strike rate is currently a ridiculous 4.41, that should mean with the nine rides he currently has booked for Saturday there are two winners in that group, I am sure the ones he wants the most are the Diamond Stakes and the New Zealand Stakes.
The New Zealand Derby last Saturday, James McDonald was riding Silent Achiever. The ground was possibly not as suitable as they would have liked, there was not a lot of pace in the race for Silent Achiever a horse who typically likes to race towards the back of the pack. It was evident from the relief shown by Roger James when they interviewed him after the victory that although he felt he had the horse with the most talent, he was not sure if things were lining up exactly how he wanted. After the race James McDonald admitted he didn't ride exactly to instructions and Silent Achiever slipped leaving the gates, judging from the after race comments analysts felt that possibly Silent Achiever hit the front earlier than she normally would have. What I liked about the ride was the point about 1400m to go when she was third from last and James McDonald moved her up, three wide, but closer to the pace. As they hit the 800m mark there is probably only 9 runners ahead of him, it was an excellent place for him to be when they started the sprint for home. As it was she won comfortably, but if he had been further back who knows, maybe she gets blocked or simply out sprinted. He really seemed to always have that race under his control from about 350m, every time another runner battled closer he asked her for more and she gave it.
In the Auckland Cup yesterday, as trainer Allan Sharrock said in his interview after the race "what else could go wrong" (in the video in the link, you need to sign up to view it, but it is free). He even basically said that the rain that had started about an hour before the race had put him off having a big bet on the horse because of the uncertainty in the conditions. Given what we saw on Saturday it would be hard not to be concerned at that point. During the running of the race George Simon made several comments about the position of Shez Sensational. "the favourite's under a ride" was his call as James McDonald went to work on her about 450m to go, he was probably one of the first Jockeys to make a move in the race. He then had to work a bit to find a hole, but Shez Sensational responded when he finally did. George Simon mentions she is warming up as they pass the 300m mark, but she really hits her stride with about 200m to go and just had too much top speed chasing down Spiro on the line.
Clearly we are looking at a very talented Filly and Mare, but everything didn't go their way, and those were very strong rides to allow the horses to show their best.
Now the question remains, can he go four for four?
The next Auckland Cup week Group 1 is the first Group 1 for the Two year olds the Diamond Stakes over 1200m. James McDonald is riding equal second favourite Rollout the carpet. There is a lot of talent in this race when you look at Choice Bro, Warhorse, Travino, Silk Pins and Croatia amongst others.
Choice Bro has shown eye catching finishes in the Karaka Million (fourth) and winning over Ockhams Razor last start at Taranaki. He has had the benefit of good draws to date and has performed best on a good track, he may not have either on Saturday. The blinkers which came on last start seemed to make a difference. He will be finishing big, but probably down the outside as opposed to the inside as in recent starts.
Warhorse is having his first start in over a month, however he has tended to race with these kind of gaps to date in his career so that should not effect him. A Group 3 winner with talent, he really charged home in the Karaka Million. He is already establishing a strong record at Ellerslie and his win there on New Years day was on a rain effected track. He has the benefit of a better draw so might be able to start his run from a handier position this time.
Travino had his first start back in New Zealand in the Matamata Slipper two weeks ago. The dead track gave him only his second non-win in the New Zealand since his first start (on a slow track). That was his first start in about 6 weeks, his wins have come with 14days, 14days and 21days rest, so expect a better showing here. He has drawn barrier one which should allow him to stay handy $9 fixed odds seems pretty good value if the rain stays away.
Croatia is having his third start. After winning on debut he was able to show a big finish to behind Irish Rebel and Magic Shaft. He has to be confided a contender here.
Mai Guru is having his first start since his fifth in the Karaka Million. I was slightly surprised by that fifth, he seemed to outperform other horses who I might have expected better from. This race is just stacked and he will have to show improvement to finish ahead of Silk Pins, Choice Bro, and Warhorse.
Roof of Reckoning is a maiden runner who was able to show something at Matamata, hard to know if possibly wet ground might help. He looks reasonably talented, but there are some classy runners to beat here.
King Zeus is having his second start and will go from barrier 6. He seemed to improve with trialing and was favourite in his first start. He was beaten by Fix over 1000m, who went on to have a good win on Auckland Cup day. King Zeus showed good fight but was worn down late. I suspect he may be fitter for the run and 1200m may suit.
Rollout the Carpet for James McDonald has drawn 11, but is coming off a form line which looks the same in the race book (1 and 1 been the results of his last two runs). The second win was in the Matamata Breeders Stakes at Group 2 level. She has beaten the fillies, so the question becomes can she beat the boys too? She is good and has looked it in her last two starts. Wetness underfoot does not appear to be an issue. Barrier number 11 may not be a problem if she gets out as well as she has recently, she will want to be handy and in a position to lead them home.
Seleno was very eye catching at New Plymouth last start, she was wide and back and simply flew home. If the track is wet it will suit and you suspect that 2nd up may help. The draw should suit and if she is closer to them starting her run, look out!
Silk Pins was great in the Karaka Million. Before the Karaka Million her record is deceiving, she didn't get a lot of luck in those races. Was third in the Matamata breeders stakes and didn't look as good that day. Happy to give her a chance, but I have a concern on wet ground based on the slow track New Years day at Ellerslie.
Soriano is currently undefeated. She was a winner late last week at Te Rapa. She is a bit of an enigma here, the win looked very good, but there is a lot of solid exposed form here.
Coat du Roan was good when 6th at Taranaki, was also unlucky when caught up by Ockham's Razor. Throw that race out and there is less to go on. She is almost certainly better than a $41 chance, but you could only take her on potential. Chateauneuf Dupape ran third in this race last year, as that is in the Rhone region maybe a horse called Coat du Roan can feature this year.
The Picks (I am assuming this forecast rain clears and we get back to a good or dead track)
First - Warhorse - This looks much more suitable than the Karaka Million.
Second - Rollout the Carpet - Looks talented, I have spent 1,500 words explaining how this could be Jame McDonald's week.
Third - Choice Bro - Like Rollout the Carpet the draw is a concern, there is no doubt of the talent. He will be coming on at the end.
Fourth - Seleno - Big finish, if she was 6th instead of 9th back she may have won, she will be closer from barrier 2.
In the New Zealand Stakes James McDonald will ride Scarlett Lady against a strong Group 1 field. Veyron is certainly the most dangerous after winning back to back Group 1's and showing that the step to middle distance is not so big after-all on Boxing Day, he loves this track and will be very hard to beat.
Veyron all but eliminated middle distance questions on Boxing Day. I also think his build up to this race has been far better than the build up to boxing day. He will handle all tracks so weather concerns should not be an issue.
Hold it Harvey is always consistent at Group 1 level. He came for them late when stepping back to 1600m at Otaki and was second to Shez Sensational at Te Rapa before that. This is a rare trip to Ellerslie and right handed, but he is hitting the strongest part of his campaign and he is better than when he was last here boxing day 2010.
Doctor Fremantle was good for a surprising third here on Boxing Day. He didn't get a lot of breaks last time in Hamilton. This is a big ask but he is capable of running in the money.
Showcause has basically been weighted out of the Open Handicap level (although it would have been interesting to see him yesterday). Although he didn't come back the strongest at New Plymouth that is not surprising. He is yet to feature second up either, a stat which is countered by his strong Ellerslie record. He gets better third up, and you might expect he can do something here but not enough to win.
Vosne Romanee won this race two years ago and surprised for a place last year. His last two starts have actually shown a bit of a (relative) resurgence in the nine year old gelding. Don't completely dismiss for old times sake, but there are a lot of better places for your money.
Riomoral has been a big improver over the last couple of months. WFA Group 1 seems a bit optimistic, but the steps towards middle distance have suited him.
Postmans Daughter probably needed a run between the Darci Brahma and this and she got in over 1600m in a Group 1 at Otaki. That was never going to be the ideal race for her but this is definitely where she will look at home. She seems to respond better to 2000m+ and going right handed, drawn barrier 1 will help too. This race looks perfectly set up for her, but it is hard to see her beating Veyron or Scarlett Lady.
Lady Kipling performed very strongly over 1600m at Otaki. She had her first win at Ellerslie two starts back but has twice been fourth at Group 1 level. She has been very consistent recently and the move up to 2000m should put her in a good position.
Scarlett Lady will face her first big test since returning from injury. If this race was run in the spring she probably would have been sole favourite. She has had 1 run back for 1 win but this is tougher. 2000m will surely suit her and she wont mind any rain. She has always been consistent, it was really unfortunate to see injury derailing her spring because she really could have made some noise in Melbourne last year.
Inferno is making her first trip to the big city following a pretty strong run in Matamata last start. This will be a major test but the distance should suit and around 8th up should see her peaking. It is a big ask.
Shuka is trying to become the first 3YO to win an Open level Group 1 this season. Twice in his career he has backed up in under a week and he has run second both times. The step back to 2000m should assist his chances. He is an absolute winning chance here, but yet again he might just be facing too much talent, which has been the story of his career to date.
I hate to go chalk, but it is hard to look past the favourites in this race. Who will win? toss a coin, it could be that close. We have not seen a big Group 1 shock this year, The Party Stand was somewhat of a shock winning this last year.
The Picks
First - Veyron - It just feels like he has put in the work to establish himself as favourite. Winning back to back Group 1's. The 2000m looks right for him and that Ellerslie record is superb.
Second - Scarlett Lady - Can win this based just on class. I think she will take a couple more races to get back to her absolute best, not sure where that will be, Australia?
Third - Postmans Daughter - I think the return to right handed should suit enough for her to improve on the Waikato run.
Fourth - Lady Kipling - Talent on the rise, could be the Cup week shock.
That was tough, I switched 1 and two back and forth several times and also changed up third and fourth with the mares and Hold it Harvey. I think it would pay to keep them safe on the weekend.
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