Tuesday 27 March 2012

Tuesday Racing, Why not?

I know that Monday and Tuesday racing is a somewhat controversial topic, I am not here to comment on the logistics or point of this, nor am I informed enough on the reasons for and against. What I am is bored. I never pay much attention to mid week racing, I simply don't have the time, and if I am not going to be home and watching it then I tend not to really bet on it. The good thing about the NZ Racing Website is that if you need to watch mid week racing you can watch all of the races in 20 minutes, if you need to study form for a weekend race it is all right there for you for free.

Today I am throwing myself into Tuesday racing, having a look at the runners and making some selections.

Race 1 - 2000m Maiden - Small field of seven runners, I notice two are paying 20-1 and 30-1 which all but makes this a 5 horse race (in the eyes of the bookies at least), if there were eight runners then maybe one of those at that level is worth a place bet flyer with fixed odds place betting available.

My Picks
First - 4 - Makers Mark - I always like horses coming back from tougher company regardless of the result.
Second - 3 - Prospero - Performed better 2nd up on a dead track, will a slow track suit?
Third - 2 - Lucky Charm - Best performance last start C&D, should run on.
Fourth - 8 - Double Delight - Why not? yet to do anything, but this is only beating three runners, also is another who has raced against better company.

Race 2 - 1600m Maiden - Interesting race with a few runners claiming with apprentice Jockeys where they have not in the past. Also this is a decent sized field with a handful of experienced runners. My theory of runners back in "grade" will be tested today. I also have another theory about not liking runners going back in distance when they are searching for a win.
 My Picks
First - 10 - Shan's Joy - Love the claim, seems to get better with racing, 1600m suits, and handles all tracks.
Second - 4 - Ira Bean - This is where my theories intersect. I do like the claim, hopefully she will go well fresh.
Third - 9 -  Oneworld Onedream - Looks like a big chance based from the two starts to date.
Fourth - 1 - Just Got Home - Is getting closer, more distance seemed to suit last start.

Race 3 - 1400m Rating 75 - Some fairly accomplished rating 75 horses here..
My Picky
First - 1- Czechout Girl - Great name. Recent winner. Claiming will help chances, and she has gone well on slow tracks.
Second - 5 - Sateka - In form, handles all tracks and has won twice in Matamata.
Third - 7 -  Savvy Dancer - Fresh is a state which suits, he worked his way up to longer last prep but still has performed well over 1400m and early in prep.
Fourth - 4 - Snagglepuss - Great 1400m distance record, not in the best form but tends to get a bit better with racing.

Race 4 - 1200m 3YOF Maiden - I always like 3YO races at this level at this point in the season. You never know if you are going to see a Scarlett Lady type runner, maybe a runner who will come on as at 4YO, maybe you are looking at a horse who's connections had hopes she would have been running in a Guineas or Oaks but the timing simply didn't work out. There are a lot of possible story lines in play. It is interesting looking back at our top horses, yes some were great at 3YO, but the late bloomers are interesting, often they raced in this type of race unsuccessfully at age three.

My Picks
First - 10 - Pearle Lustre - had placed in trials and was well supported first up. Should do better here with luck.
Second - 14 - Zabinella - Has only one race start to date at age two, was very well backed. That was following a trial win. Following another trial win is now having her first 3YO start. Hope she does better.
Third - 2 - La Stellina - Close in what looked to be a similar race.
Fourth - 3 - Seven Fifty - Claiming down to 53.5kg. Technically her third 3YO start. Her career form to date looks like she is another who has had a couple of starts but been put away to come back at a better time. Maybe this is the time she can be unleashed.

Race 5 - 1200m Maiden -  Lots of runners having their first start here, really makes it quite open, hard to know what to expect from a few of these runners, tough start to the Quaddie.
My Picks
First - 14 - Veronica Hall - Good course and distance record, beaten favourite, claiming.
Second - 1 - Distance suits and should not have an issue with the slow track, back from a strong race last start.
Third - 5 - The final round - Why not? seems to have trialed well.
Fourth - 3 - Isdabicky - Handful of trials placing recently.


Race 6 - 1600m Racing 65m - Interesting race for three reasons, firstly there is a number of runners back to this level after racing for higher stakes recently, secondly there is a few either dropping back in distance or possibly working their way up to more distance, and thirdly there are several who have not really performed on rain effected tracks.
My Picks
First - 2 - Are you Devious - Without the claim I would be less confident, this is easier than recent races but the slow track performance two starts back is a concern.
Second - 4 - Ransoms Gold - Good performances recently, amongst the favourites again.
Third - 7 - Speedy Rocket - Should suit the conditions, 1600m should see improvement, has been racing for higher stakes at R65 level.
Fourth - 3 - Lovetohaveit - Winner previously at Ellerslie, taking a big claim while taking on a level which is more suitable.

Race 7 - 1200m Rating 65 - Is it just me or do we have some very good apprentice Jockeys around? I really like a number of them and feel very comfortable betting on them.
My Picks
First - 6 - Lady Krovanh - Really good 3rd over 2100m to the eventual derby winner. Freshened. Should go well here.
Second - 12 - Tale to Tell - Was impressed with the maiden victory last start.
Third - 4 - Secret Whisper - Ran in the Guineas last start, 1200m should suit fresh up.
Fourth - 17 - Vuela - Value, concern is track and strong competition.

Race 8 -  1400m Maiden - Interesting race, a lot of possibilities, very few I feel are certain to perform.
My Picks
First - 6 - My Blossom Lady - If you forget the last start then you feel the most confident about her.
Second - 8 - Morgan Le Fay - Looked to have that strong finish to suit 1400m
Third - 2 - Ribbony Rose - Slow track concerns, but merit in the last two starts.
Fourth - 3 - Scarlet Chaparral -  Place chance like so many in this race.
 

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