Previewing Derby Day

I have gone into a lot of detail about the actual Telecom New Zealand Derby, but there is a lot of great racing action happening at Ellerslie at TV3 Derby Day. Any day when you have $20,000 maidens will be a day where you attract the top talent available.

Lindaeur 1400, Maiden
5 Eastward - Bad luck in Hamilton last start, missed the start and fighting for a run, however wound up well. 1400m looks idea, drawn barrier one will hopefully give him more room.
1 American Idol - Consistently strong in first two starts, an extra 100m to 1400m Saturday. Both runners to beat him last start were already race winners.

3 El Volante - Was so close to breaking Maiden ranks last start over 1400m, showed a strong finish, narrowly missing out to a runner who was not far away up in grade next start. Forget the 1600m last start, it feels like 1400m will suit.

9 Impy Luis - Far more consistency shown this prep, it looks like taking on 1400m will suit as she will be fitter for the runs back, possible value.

Stella Artois 2100m, Special Conditions 2100m
8 Grande Bellezza - Good experience over this kind of distance and running in bigger maiden and Special conditions races. Kept giving a lot last start, you cannot find too many faults with the run, was simply beaten by a better horse who is a Derby chance.
6 Rhythm Divine - A runner who has shown some ability at Ellerslie and with some moisture around. Claiming 3kg. She has been running in strong maidens and Special conditions races. Quick over the last 600m last start. The step to 2100m will appeal.
7 Te Ariki - Looks a genuine stayer at 4YO, already has five runs over 2000m and seems best suited to 2100m, can see it winning this.
2 Roddick - Maybe has not quite been competing against the same level of competition recently, however the victory last start was strong and a repeat performance here would see him in the money most likely.

TV3 Nathan's Memorial 2200m, Open Handicap
2 Shez Sensational - She really lives up to the name. Looking to back up on Wednesday in the Cup one would assume. Handicap conditions see her carry 59kgs, 2200m is more distance than her starts this prep, but she has placed in a Derby and an Oaks in the past.
3 The Jungle Boy - Will be one hoping for rain. He is getting closer to breaking that Ellerslie jinx, this is slightly easier than the Avondale Cup so he can hopefully go one or two better than fourth.
1 Titch - Gets better with racing and looks good after winning his last two starts particularly after taking the 2kg claim into account. This race is tougher, but he has a shining Ellerslie record, and if there is rain around he will be in his element.
6 Azincourt - He tends to get better with racing. His distance record is interesting recently, when he runs 2000m he looks like she needs more distance, when he runs 2100 or 2200m he looks a bit spent. Drawn well and handles damper conditions, can he be another to challenge his Ellerslie Jinx? 

The Gucci Mile, 3YO 1600m
7 Abeautifulred - A filly I have liked since the Guineas, always competitive and has been racing against top company in the 3YO ranks. A step back to 1600m should see her on top.
1 Kings Fortune - Showed significant promise recently but the weight is a concern, it is difficult not to have him in the mix on recent results.
8 Full of Spirit - if you watch the last two starts you will see a horse ready for 1600m, has been running in solid races and looks well suited here.
3 Hexie Hao - Has come on in January, this is tougher, but with the claim and impressively consistent record he should be considered here.

Barfoot and Thompson Mile, Rating 85 1600m
6 Rasteau - Consistent and in form, forget the run two starts back we should see another strong finish over 1600m.
8 Essaouria - Always close, 1600m record is great and seems to handle all conditions so far. Back up in grade but will only have to carry 54kg
5 Platinum Dancer - Flying to finish third in a similar race recently, will have an extra 200m to handle but it looks like he is ready for that.

4 Steel Giant - Don't know much about this horse returning from Hong Kong, usually runners struggle with the conditions or the change in location but he has a good enough overall record that he is worth considering.

The New Zealand Herald 1400, Rating 65 1400m
4 Positive Energy - Close to two from two at 1400m last start. That was impressive because he ran three and four wide early and showed a big finish. Looks like he will be a threat when he steps up to 1600m but for now 1400m looks a good trip.

5 Have no Mercy - Has talent and will claim 3kg, has placed 2 of 3 runs at Ellerslie and wont mind the wet conditions predicted. Last start over 1400m was very good where there was a lot of fight shown.
9 Ishimine - Has been running on this type of premier day recently, was very good two starts back weaving through traffic for 4th, the 3rd at Matamata was distant, but it looks as if 1400m should see her in this.
13 Bead of Courage - Possible value runner, both wins have come over 1400m and on rain effected tracks, will claim 3kg down to very little weight. Won third and fourth up last prep so should come on with the first up start.

Darley Plate, Group 3 1200m
3 Justanexcuse - A lot to like in this race, he has been racing over more distance but has an impressive 1200m record. He has been freshened since January and he goes very well in that state, he will not be concerned by the rain and barrier 10 shouldn't concern given he will likely go back anyway.
1 Durham Town - Very unlucky last start, the fall by Vinnie Colgan was nasty and could have been much worse as he was very close to the rail. He has an Ellerslie and 1200m record similar to Veyron and he seems to be getting better. My concern is that the times he has failed to place at Ellerslie have both been on rain effected tracks. He is undefeated after a spell like he has just had.
5 Vonusti - Although he has been taking on more ground recently he has had a month off and brought back to the distance in which he is a Group 1 winner. 55kg's appeals, he has a good record at Ellerslie and will handle any moisture in the ground. He was running in pretty good form prior to Christmas and this looks a bit easier than some recent starts.
4 Ourforeignminister - Was pretty good in the winter and spring last year. 1200m is probably short of ideal, but I like his chances to do something resuming on what is likely to be a rain effected track.

George FM 2100, Rating 75 over 2100m

3 Captian Marvel - Aside from the one slow track he has encountered he has won or placed in each start to date, will probably figure here.
12 La Veinne - Another runner on the rise, well weighted here with a distance which suits. Seems to have struggled getting away from barrier one, but a threat with a good trip.
2 Payback - Good course and distance record, will handle the wet, claiming 1kg and looks suited to 2100m. Could be value.
10 Bellino - Looked good on the track over 1600m, really came for them into 3rd, he has always gone well over a bit more distance so could be right in this.

New Zealand Derby
I have written an in-depth derby preview here.

Auckland 1400, Rating 75 1400m

3 C'est Magnifique - Goes well fresh, rain is a question mark but he looks to have a lot of talent, there are a lot of chances in this race but he looks very good.
1 Islington Bay - Second race in 3 years, a great effort first up, an extra 100m here suits as does the 3kg claim if the conditions are wet.
8 Lovesite - Is probably looking for more distance, but the claim and wet track effort makes this look like a suitable race on the way to more distance.
9 The Captain - Has not had many attempts right handed, but 1400m and a wet track should suit, seems to go well with some racing, definitely a chance.