Auckland Cup Preview 2012

Amongst the hype of Derby Day you may have missed it, but Titch won his second consecutive Auckland Cup. Preview over. Thanks for reading.

Of course the Auckland Cup is not actually run until later on this afternoon, but Titch ran second in the Nathan's Memorial, a race which has recently been an excellent indicator of Auckland Cup success. It was a close finish, but lucky for him he didn't win, otherwise we would be talking about the Jungle Boy right now. If all of this sounds familiar that is because it is, Titch ran second in this race last year behind Solid Billing (that was another very tight finish on a rain effected track) who went on to run 10th in the Auckland Cup. Forget about Minquar Quaim from two years ago. Three Years ago Spin Around was chased down by Capecover in the Nathan's memorial, he turned the tide the following Wednesday finishing 8 places ahead of Capecover and winning the Cup. Unfortunately, Prize Lady decided to ruin things by not running in the Nathan's Memorial in either 2008 or 2007, running 3rd and 4th in the Auckland Cup prelude (which would now have been the Avondale Cup), she also ran 3rd in that race in 2009.

Where does this leave us in regard to this years Auckland Cup? I really don't know.

A 3200m Open Handicap is a very strange thing. They are so few and far between that many starters will not have run over this distance or run over it very few times. Often prior to running 3200m horses have been racing over 2400m or shorter, that is 800m shorter, so success does not always correlate. It is always interesting to see horses who are 'out of form' when talking about shorter distances stepping up with that further 800m and turning into contenders. Today I wanted to break down the positives and negatives for the runners and look at who can contend.

#1 Six O'Clock News, Barrier 6, 59kg 
The Positives
Is back in form recently and actually winning taking out the Wellington Cup (2400m). He has run 5th and 7th in this race in the past when he has been in similar form. Barrier 6 should see him reasonably well placed in the running to avoid any extra distance. The track should be good for him too.
My Concerns 
Carrying 59kg effectively rules him out for me. He carried 56kg to win the Wellington Cup, and 59kg when last (at WFA) in Hamilton next start.  

#2 Booming, Barrier 20, 58kg
The Positives
He seems to get better with a bit more distance, he looked to improve stepping up from 2000m to 2400m and has placed in his only 3200m start. Auckland also seems to be a track which will see him show an above average performance. Eye catching in the Avondale Cup, was really running on well and drops a kg from that start. 
My Concerns
Although solid this campaign, he has not really found the same form from a year ago. He has been close but until the Avondale Cup has not shown his best. He is facing a big field and will be coming from an outside barrier, he would normally look to come from towards to the back, but over 3200m the possibility of racing wide is very real.


#3 Titch, Barrier 12, 57.5kg
The Positives
Clearly a horse capable of winning over 3200m. Ran home well over the finial stages for second in the Nathan's Memorial.Was able to carry the 57.5kg on the weekend when second, and has carried more recently.
My Concerns
Carrying 3kg more than he carries a year ago in this race for victory. Although he is a Group 1 winner, his previous two wins have been for 15k and 20k and at courses abbreviated TAUH and WROA. I googled these to discover they are Wairoa and Tauherenikau, again I turned to Google to discover Wairoa is in the northern Hawkes Bay and Tauherenikau is in Martinborough, which is in the Wairarapa. Whilst I will apologise for my geographical ignorance, it is evident he has not been facing the toughest of competition since his Auckland Cup victory.

#4 Spiro, Barrier 3, 57.5kg
The Positives
Has looked in good form with strong performances carrying more weight in the Wellington and Taranaki Cups. He definitely gets better with racing, this is his 9th start up this time which should see him at peak performance. He stepped back from 2400m in the Wellington Cup to 1800m, and it looked like a few more meters might have been helpful. He showed good fight in Wellington when Six O'Clock News was too good, 3200m will be a first.
My Concerns
He is not only venturing to Ellerslie for the first time, he will be having his first start right handed. Is this a question mark we should be thinking about? It is also his first 3200m start, although he has shown it is likely to not be too big of a concern.

#5 Shez Sensational, Barrier 19, 55kg
The Positives
She will carry only 55kg on a decent surface. She is a dual Group 1 winner this year already and has shown her ability to stay in Queensland last winter.
My Concerns
He run on the weekend, but they have really been addressed by James McDonald after that race. The distance is still a concern, and the wide draw could always lead to an difficult position, but it might be less critical with 3200m to run, particularity given James McDonald's ability to read a race a break from the norm as required, like we saw on Silent Achiever on Saturday.

#6 Single Minded, Barrier 11, 54kg
The Positives
Won the Avondale Cup in strong fashion. Has been very consistent of late rising through the grades as a stayer. He has performed well at Ellerslie and will actually carry less weight here than in either of his last two victories.
My Concerns
He possibly still lacks experience and is still getting used to running against this level of competition. 3200m is an unknown, and this is tougher than either of his last wins in Auckland.

#7 The Jungle Boy, Barrier 17, 54kg
The Positives
Finally broke his duck at Ellerslie with a win in his 11th start, is this the start of a streak? or will there be another gap between victories? He showed a good finish on the weekend and will again reduce his weight by 1.5kg. Placed over 3200m.
My Concerns
His overall record at Ellerslie is no good, although as I have written before there is not really a logical reason for that. He does like a wet surface, he will be unlikely to see that later today.

#8 Blood Brotha, Barrier 8, 54kg
The Positives
New Zealand Cup winner who is only carrying .5kg more from that race. Gets better over more ground. Good third in the Avondale Cup which looked to signal a bit of a return to form. This will be the first time with the same jockey back to back since February 2011. He might be getting back to best form at the right time.
My Concerns
Last two victories have come on Heavy tracks including the New Zealand Cup victory.


#9 Back in Black, Barrier 1, 54kg
The Positives
Last start was his best run since the spring. Will be able to race to his strength and stay handy from the inside barrier.The Jungle Boy broke a long Ellerslie drought on Saturday, maybe he will follow suit. 54kg is a lot lighter than recent runs, may be some merit.
My Concerns
Horrible Ellerslie record, no wins from 16 attempts (like the Jungle Boy it is surprising considering he has an otherwise strong right handed record). Tends to win early, is now 15th up. The biggest race he has won was worth $40k. Yet to win, or place, over 2000m.

#10 Castle Heights, Barrier 21, 54kg
The Positives
Placed in this race a year ago. Was pretty good up until the Avondale Cup. He should be able to show a strongish finish in this race. Down to 54kg which is still 2kg more than a year ago, but much lighter than recent starts.
My Concerns
Has not actually won since 2009. Would have expected a better Avondale Cup run as was looking in better form before that. He is drawn one of the widest,

#11 Loose Change, Barrier 23, 53.5kg
The Positives
Very experienced at 2400m, finishing off races well most of the time recently. Will get a good track which is what he needs. He looks to improve with a bit more racing, so should be ready to put forward a good effort.
My Concerns
Possibly looks a bit outclassed in this field. Limited experience at Ellerslie or on right handed tracks. 53.5kg is light, but has not really been carrying that much more when losing in pretty strong races. Drawn way outside.


#12 Aussieaussieaussie, Barrier 4, 52.5kg
The Positives
Had his best result in the North Island recently,  he does tend to get better with a bit of racing, so he could go well in this type of race.
My Concerns
Has never won outside of the South Island. He tends to get better on a wetter surface. He has never won over more than 1800m. Given a lack of strong 2400m performances you have to be concerned about the 3200m trip.

#13 Yours, Barrier 22, 52.5kg
The Positives
Close up to Titch two starts back while carrying 59kgs. Has now had two starts over the distance, with a good performance for 4th in the New Zealand Cup.
My Concerns
Was second last in the Avondale Cup, that was a tough race, but this is tougher, was running on, but will only carry 1kg less.

#14 Options, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
Genuine lightweight chance, in form and has looked good winning on the course. Always a lightweight runner who shows up strong for a race like this. Was very impressive over 2000m winning easily at Matamata. Adjusting well to racing in the North Island.
My Concerns
Longest win/race has only been 2100m, this is a lot further. New to the open handicap level, has been improving but Group 1 level should represent a step up.

#15 Innocent Lady, Barrier 24, 52kg
The Positives
Lightweight chance who has previously looked decent running over 3200m. Was not in great form prior to 4th in this race last year.She is definitely one of those runners when I see the distance I get a bit more interested, and when I see that weight I sort of think "Really! only 52 kilos?"
My Concerns
Far from best form, has had a very bad year to date. Badly drawn. Despite my first reaction I watched the Avondale Cup, I don't think she really can figure here.

#16 Peace Lilly, Barrier 7, 52kg
The Positives
A runner who seems to be getting better at running at open handicap level, the think I like is that while this is a step up from Rating 85, she was at the top of that grade and carrying high weights, the drop to 52kg is very tempting. Has done well at racing and 5 of her 6 wins have been right handed.
My Concerns
She has possibly performed best recently on tracks which are more rain effected, but has a consistent overall record on all tracks. This still seems like a step up in class from the races she has been winning.

#17 Jaffa Jack, Barrier 10, 52kg
The Positives
 Jaffa Jack has performed well over more distance, probably 3200m will suit given the strength he has shown over distance on wet tracks.
My Concerns
It is going to be a bit too dry for this stayer to feature. A seven year old with 22 career starts, who has only recently been running at open level, even with the lightweight this is a step up.

#18 Top Spot, Barrier 11, 52kg
The Positives
Has performed well carrying similar weights in races over 2400m.  He has performed well at Ellerslie recently, particularly the 3rd in the City of Auckland Cup carrying more weight.
My Concerns
Ideally you would probably want a slightly wetter track to see his best. Last win was first up over 1400m at rating 85 level, this is a lot tougher.

The Picks
Value Win - Options ($12) - Pretty good for a chance to win at that light weight.
Value Place - Top Spot ($9) - I could actually see it winning, but it is a bit tough, it is definitely a place chance and $9 is pretty good value for the place.
Longest shot I can see coming - Top Spot ($31) - If things go right I could see it.

First -  Single Minded - ($6.50) - Was so impressive in the Avondale Cup, I can see him going on here and stepping up over 3200m.
Second - Shez Sensational - ($1.40p) - Simply too classy not to be in the picture.
Third - Options - ($4p) - A leightweight should figure here.
Fourth - Spiro - ($5.20p) - I think think he will figure in this race, I think 3200m is looking light the right distance and I can see him winning this. 


There are so many chances, I really find it hard to completely rule out anyone under the $21 mark. I think Shez Sensational is clearly the most talented, but there is definitely some concerns from the weekend run.