I have been looking for something to write about this week. Although I am very excited about the racing at Rosehill this weekend and for some reason the Japan Trophy meeting at Tauranga is one which always excites me, I am not sure I have much to say about these races.
The season feels like it is winding up, there are still three group 1's this year in New Zealand and plenty of horses heading to Australia for the Sydney Carnival and there are always a number who head to Queensland in the Winter. It has been such a good year for a number of horses I got to thinking who would be my horse of the year right now? When I came up with my answer I realised that horse may be too far ahead to catch. What would need to happen over the next couple of months to change my opinion?
If the season finished now, there is little doubt in my mind that the best performing horse from New Zealand this year has been Mufhasa. His resume includes two Group 1 wins in New Zealand (Makfi Challenge Stakes and the Captain Cook Stakes) as well as two in Australia (Toorak Handicap and the Futurity Stakes), he also finished second in two Group 1 Races in New Zealand (Winsor Park Plate and the Waikato Draft Sprint), his 'worst' performance has been second at Group 3 level in the Tauranga Stakes. The only three horses have to finish a race ahead of him this year are Jimmy Choux, Veyron (both 2 time New Zealand Group 1 winners this year) and Lady Chaparral. That is a very decent six month stretch. There may be more to come in Sydney this Autumn. Is that the best season by any Kiwi horse? I don't think there is anything which can top this now, but could anything top it by year end?
Could a Two Year Old win?
Conceivably, yes. This year, no. Even if Warhorse is able to win a second Group 1 it would be impossible to put his body of work ahead of Mufhasa. Even if a unrecognised or under-recognised NZ 2YO travelled to Australia in the winter and won multiple Group 1's it still might not be enough. I am yet to read of any plans for any of the "leading" 2YO talent to attempt this, so we can stack this in the very unlikely pile.
Who is the top 3YO contender?
There have been five 3YO Group 1 Races, we have had five different winners. Only one horse (Rock'n'Pop) has run in the top three of more than one of these races. The other two stand out 3YO's this year (when you look at their whole body of work) are Planet Rock and Silent Achiever, the next tier includes Artistic and Ocean Park. I know none of these have impressed like Mufhasa thus far this season, I think the top New Zealand three year old may come down to Australian performances, but will any of these performances be sufficient to unseat current favourite Mufhasa? If Silent Achiever is able to win both the Rosehill Guineas and the Australia Derby (assuming that is where she ends up), what if Artistic is able to do something in Queensland, as the Oaks appears a target, Ocean Park looked good first start in Australia, he might be a Guineas or even Derby threat, and there is always the chance of another top chance emerging over the Winter like Shez Sinsational and Scarlett Lady did last year, could a horse like Quintessential challenge? I am not sure Silent Achiever will be best suited in the Guineas, but should be a threat over Oaks or Derby distance. However, even with those feathers in her cap it is hard to see people considering her as having a better year than Mufhasa.
Group 1 Winners galore
Scarlett Lady had the potential to sew up this horse of the year status in the Spring but injury prevented this. She is currently in Australia and one would assume she is aiming for a BMW or a Sydney Cup or something similar. Her resume for 2011/12 is short, but includes a 2000m Group 1 victory during Auckland Cup week. Strong results over in Australia could see her contend for horse of the year, but there is a lot of ground to make up.
Veyron finished off a dominant 2011 with a win in the Easter Handicap capturing his first Group 1 in the process. He started the new season with a fourth first up at Open Handicap level in November, as we approach April that is still his worst result of the season. Since then he has won four races and finished second in two with two Group 1 wins and two seconds over 2000m also at Group 1 level. I would not have expected him to show that kind of talent over 2000m, but it is really testament to his ability. Had he captured those other two Group 1's he may even be the favourite to be horse of the year. Thus far he is not on the exported horses list for March, so it is not clear if he will run in Australia this year.
Shez Sinsational didn't begin the 2011/12 season spectacularly, running 2nd and 3rd over 1400m in Rating 90 company and 5th in a 1600m Group 3 race. However, the Queensland Oaks and Derby place-getter showed that more ground was what she craved running 2nd in the Cal Isuzu Stakes over 1600m at Group 2 level and then dominating the 2000m WFA category winning both the Zabeel Classic and the Darci Brahma International. Handicap conditions and wet ground caused a worry when third in the Nathan's Memorial but her third Group 1 win was impressive in the Auckland Cup. That alone is probably not enough to have her as horse of the year over Mufhasa, however there are plenty of options available to her as to where she might race next.
Jimmy Choux has two Group 1 wins in New Zealand this year (Windsor Park Plate and the Spring Classic), he was runner up in the first of the three "triple crown" races to Mufhasa. He was runner up in the Cox Plate and fourth in the Emirates Mile. He was invited to the Hong Kong Mile, he ran ninth, but even accepting an invitation is a big deal. He will have one more start in New Zealand (probably) this year in the Easter Handicap, clearly Handicap conditions may not be ideal, but one would think he has the talent even at a significant weight disadvantage. He will then likely head to Australia for more Group 1's. Would a third New Zealand Group 1 and one or two Aussie Group 1's make him the best Kiwi horse this year? maybe, it really depends on how Mufhasa goes, however at this point it his his 'Race' to lose.
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